Thank you for your comment, David. You raise several important points.
You're right that the dividend will be lower. I estimate it will be around €3 per share, possibly less if management uses the full flexibility under French tax rules. The exceptional post-disposal dividends are over.
I also see the risks you mentioned:
Interest rates: Are already rising for French mortgages and could increase further.
Political uncertainty: Is likely to persist until at least the 2027 presidential election.
Public finances: Are a structural risk for any investment in French real estate.
Short-term pain is certain, even with the steep NAV discount and the backing of the Caisse des Dépôts et Consignations. Furthermore, I believe the growing "return to office" trend, as unemployment rises and employer leverage increases, should ultimately benefit their well-located office portfolio.
I am looking forward to the next quarterly results. We will know in a few months whether you were right not to get back into the stock. Rendez-vous au Q3!
I haven't looked into this name for a while. Good to see that there should be a good dividend yield going forward. I was under the impression that the high dividend yield was only temporary following the disposal of the health care assets, so thought I had missed my opportunity last year.
Owning office space outside the main CBD has been noted as a risk. Also the current political situation in France and their unsustainable financial situation looks like interest rates could rise even spike in the future. However as you say opportunity comes during times of uncertainty
Thank you for your comment, David. You raise several important points.
You're right that the dividend will be lower. I estimate it will be around €3 per share, possibly less if management uses the full flexibility under French tax rules. The exceptional post-disposal dividends are over.
I also see the risks you mentioned:
Interest rates: Are already rising for French mortgages and could increase further.
Political uncertainty: Is likely to persist until at least the 2027 presidential election.
Public finances: Are a structural risk for any investment in French real estate.
Short-term pain is certain, even with the steep NAV discount and the backing of the Caisse des Dépôts et Consignations. Furthermore, I believe the growing "return to office" trend, as unemployment rises and employer leverage increases, should ultimately benefit their well-located office portfolio.
I am looking forward to the next quarterly results. We will know in a few months whether you were right not to get back into the stock. Rendez-vous au Q3!
I haven't looked into this name for a while. Good to see that there should be a good dividend yield going forward. I was under the impression that the high dividend yield was only temporary following the disposal of the health care assets, so thought I had missed my opportunity last year.
Owning office space outside the main CBD has been noted as a risk. Also the current political situation in France and their unsustainable financial situation looks like interest rates could rise even spike in the future. However as you say opportunity comes during times of uncertainty
Thanks, I'm interested again now that there is still a great dividend linger term